Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Indonesia’s inflation for the full year of 2025 (January to December) was 2.92%.1

 Fortunately, Indonesia was able to keep its inflation under control in 2025

According Gemini AI  the official report from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s headline inflation for the full year of 2025 (January to December) was 2.92%.1

The year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 109.92 as of December 31, 2025.2

2025 CPI Key Breakdown

The final quarter of 2025 saw a gradual acceleration in prices, with December hitting a 20-month high due to seasonal demand and weather-related supply constraints.3

Metric

Official 2025 Value

Headline Inflation (Year-on-Year)

2.92%

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

109.92 (Base Year 2022=100)

Core Inflation

2.38%

Calendar Year (Year-to-Date) Inflation

2.92%


Primary Drivers of 2025 Inflation

  • Food, Beverages, and Tobacco: This group was the largest contributor, with annual inflation for this category reaching 4.58%.4 Specific commodities like bird's eye chili, poultry, and shallots saw significant price hikes toward the end of the year.
  • Personal Care and Other Services: This sector experienced a sharp rise of 13.33% y-on-y, largely driven by the surging price of gold jewelry.
  • Transportation: Inflation in this group rose to 1.23%, impacted by seasonal holiday airfares and gasoline prices.5
  • Core Stability: Despite the rise in headline numbers, core inflation (which excludes volatile food and government-administered prices) remained stable at 2.38%, suggesting that underlying consumer demand was manageable.


  • Target vs. Reality

The final figure of 2.92% remains well within the target corridor set by Bank Indonesia and the government, which was 6$2.5\% \pm 1\%$ (between 1.5% and 3.5%) for the 2025 fiscal year.7

Regional inflation rates in Indonesia for 2025 varied significantly, influenced by local supply chains, logistics costs, and the specific impact of gold prices and seasonal food cycles in each area.

According to the BPS (Statistics Indonesia) year-end report, here is the regional breakdown for the full year 2025:

Regional Highs and Lows (Province Level)

By December 2025, the national headline inflation was 2.92%, but local figures ranged from below 1% to over 4%.

  • Highest Inflation: Riau Province recorded the highest annual inflation in 2025 at 4.27%. This was largely driven by food price volatility and higher logistics costs for personal care items.
  • Lowest Inflation: Sulawesi Utara (North Sulawesi) maintained the lowest inflation nationally at 0.65%, primarily due to stable local food production and effective regional price control measures.
  • Java Island Peak: In Java, DI Yogyakarta saw the highest inflation at 2.92%, while Jawa Barat (West Java) was the lowest on the island at 2.54%.

City and Regency Specifics

Inflation often hits harder at the local regency/municipality level compared to provincial averages:

Location

Annual Inflation (%)

Status

Toli-Toli Regency

6.69%

Highest in Indonesia

Kerinci Regency

6.70%

Peak recorded (Oct 2025)

Deli Serdang

5.79%

Significant Sumatra peak

Bandar Lampung

0.43%

Very low urban inflation

Minahasa Utara

-0.51%

Noted for local deflation


Key Regional Trends

  • The "Gold" Effect: Provinces with high urban consumption (like those in Java and parts of Sumatra) saw spikes due to the 13.33% surge in gold jewelry prices, which carries a heavy weight in the "Personal Care" expenditure group.
  • Eastern Indonesia Stability: Many provinces in Sulawesi and parts of Papua saw lower inflation compared to previous years, aided by improved maritime logistics and local harvest stability.

  • Sumatra Pressure: Sumatra consistently faced higher inflation than other islands throughout 2025, particularly in Riau and North Sumatra, due to the high cost of imported food commodities from other islands. 
  • Precious metals exceed inflation by a huge amount

    ๐Ÿ“ˆ 2025 Annual Bullion Price Gains


    Gold bullion — approximately +60% to +65% over the year.

    Silver bullion — around +140% to +145%, making it one of the best-performing commodities in 2025.

 Official CPI for Major Economies in 2025

Here’s a summary of official Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual changes (inflation rates) for 2025 for major economies — based on IMF forecasts, OECD/EU data, and national statistics where available. Note that complete 2025 official annual CPI data are not yet fully published for all countries, so some figures below are best-available official estimates or averages from credible sources:

๐Ÿ“Š CPI Inflation Rates — Major Economies (Annual % Change, 2025)

Country / EconomyApprox. CPI Inflation (2025)Source Notes
United States ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ~2.7%IMF/WEO projections showing moderate inflation around ~2.7% in 2025.
China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ~0–0.5%China recorded very low CPI inflation, near zero or slight positive (e.g., 0.2–0.5%).
Japan ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต~3.0–3.5%Several reports indicate inflation above central bank target.
Germany ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช~2.1%IMF projected Germany around low-to-mid single digits.
United Kingdom ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง~3.4–3.5%IMF and OECD forecasts show UK leading major economies in inflation.
France ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท~1.1–1.5%IMF projected France CPI significantly lower than other G7 peers.
Italy ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น~2–2.5%OECD/EU flash data suggest moderate inflation across euro member states.
India ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ~3.0–4.0%National reports showed India’s retail CPI at ~3.16% (April) and generally low for 2025.
Brazil ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท~4.5–5.0%IMF/OECD data indicated moderate inflation in Brazil among G20.
Canada ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ~2.1–2.4%Statistics Canada reported average inflation around ~2.1–2.4% in 2025.

๐Ÿง  Notes on Interpretation

  • OECD average inflation across advanced economies hovered around ~4.1–4.2% in mid-2025, though this includes smaller economies with higher CPI.

  • Global outliers — some emerging markets (e.g., Argentina, Turkey, Venezuela) experienced much higher inflation in 2025, but they are not typically classified among the “top 10 major economies” by GDP.

  • These figures are year-on-year CPI changes, not index levels. Official final annual averages may differ slightly when all statistical offices complete their 2025 reporting.

If you want a ranked list by GDP of major economies with their official 2025 CPI figures, I can compile the best available comparables too.

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