Fortunately, Indonesia was able to keep its inflation under control in 2025
According Gemini AI the official report from the Indonesian Central
Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s headline inflation for the full
year of 2025 (January to December) was 2.92%.1
The year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 109.92
as of December 31, 2025.2
2025 CPI Key Breakdown
The final quarter of 2025 saw a gradual acceleration in
prices, with December hitting a 20-month high due to seasonal demand and
weather-related supply constraints.3
|
Metric |
Official 2025 Value |
|
Headline Inflation (Year-on-Year) |
2.92% |
|
Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
109.92 (Base Year 2022=100) |
|
Core Inflation |
2.38% |
|
Calendar Year (Year-to-Date) Inflation |
2.92% |
Primary Drivers of 2025 Inflation
- Food,
Beverages, and Tobacco: This group was the largest contributor, with
annual inflation for this category reaching 4.58%.4
Specific commodities like bird's eye chili, poultry, and shallots saw
significant price hikes toward the end of the year.
- Personal
Care and Other Services: This sector experienced a sharp rise of 13.33%
y-on-y, largely driven by the surging price of gold jewelry.
- Transportation:
Inflation in this group rose to 1.23%, impacted by seasonal holiday
airfares and gasoline prices.5
- Core
Stability: Despite the rise in headline numbers, core inflation (which
excludes volatile food and government-administered prices) remained stable
at 2.38%, suggesting that underlying consumer demand was
manageable.
Target vs. Reality
The final figure of 2.92% remains well within the
target corridor set by Bank Indonesia and the government, which was 6$2.5\%
\pm 1\%$ (between 1.5% and 3.5%) for the 2025 fiscal year.7
Regional inflation rates in Indonesia for 2025 varied
significantly, influenced by local supply chains, logistics costs, and the
specific impact of gold prices and seasonal food cycles in each area.
According to the BPS (Statistics Indonesia) year-end
report, here is the regional breakdown for the full year 2025:
Regional Highs and Lows (Province Level)
By December 2025, the national headline inflation was 2.92%,
but local figures ranged from below 1% to over 4%.
- Highest
Inflation: Riau Province recorded the highest annual inflation
in 2025 at 4.27%. This was largely driven by food price volatility
and higher logistics costs for personal care items.
- Lowest
Inflation: Sulawesi Utara (North Sulawesi) maintained the
lowest inflation nationally at 0.65%, primarily due to stable local
food production and effective regional price control measures.
- Java
Island Peak: In Java, DI Yogyakarta saw the highest inflation
at 2.92%, while Jawa Barat (West Java) was the lowest on the
island at 2.54%.
City and Regency Specifics
Inflation often hits harder at the local
regency/municipality level compared to provincial averages:
|
Location |
Annual Inflation (%) |
Status |
|
Toli-Toli Regency |
6.69% |
Highest in Indonesia |
|
Kerinci Regency |
6.70% |
Peak recorded (Oct 2025) |
|
Deli Serdang |
5.79% |
Significant Sumatra peak |
|
Bandar Lampung |
0.43% |
Very low urban inflation |
|
Minahasa Utara |
-0.51% |
Noted for local deflation |
Key Regional Trends
- The
"Gold" Effect: Provinces with high urban consumption (like
those in Java and parts of Sumatra) saw spikes due to the 13.33%
surge in gold jewelry prices, which carries a heavy weight in the
"Personal Care" expenditure group.
- Eastern
Indonesia Stability: Many provinces in Sulawesi and parts of Papua saw
lower inflation compared to previous years, aided by improved maritime
logistics and local harvest stability.
- Sumatra
Pressure: Sumatra consistently faced higher inflation than other
islands throughout 2025, particularly in Riau and North Sumatra, due to
the high cost of imported food commodities from other islands.
- Precious metals exceed inflation by a huge amount
๐ 2025 Annual Bullion Price Gains
Gold bullion — approximately +60% to +65% over the year.
Silver bullion — around +140% to +145%, making it one of the best-performing commodities in 2025.
๐ 2025 Annual Bullion Price Gains
Gold bullion — approximately +60% to +65% over the year.
Silver bullion — around +140% to +145%, making it one of the best-performing commodities in 2025.
Official CPI for Major Economies in 2025
Here’s a summary of official Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual changes (inflation rates) for 2025 for major economies — based on IMF forecasts, OECD/EU data, and national statistics where available. Note that complete 2025 official annual CPI data are not yet fully published for all countries, so some figures below are best-available official estimates or averages from credible sources:
๐ CPI Inflation Rates — Major Economies (Annual % Change, 2025)
| Country / Economy | Approx. CPI Inflation (2025) | Source Notes |
|---|---|---|
| United States ๐บ๐ธ | ~2.7% | IMF/WEO projections showing moderate inflation around ~2.7% in 2025. |
| China ๐จ๐ณ | ~0–0.5% | China recorded very low CPI inflation, near zero or slight positive (e.g., 0.2–0.5%). |
| Japan ๐ฏ๐ต | ~3.0–3.5% | Several reports indicate inflation above central bank target. |
| Germany ๐ฉ๐ช | ~2.1% | IMF projected Germany around low-to-mid single digits. |
| United Kingdom ๐ฌ๐ง | ~3.4–3.5% | IMF and OECD forecasts show UK leading major economies in inflation. |
| France ๐ซ๐ท | ~1.1–1.5% | IMF projected France CPI significantly lower than other G7 peers. |
| Italy ๐ฎ๐น | ~2–2.5% | OECD/EU flash data suggest moderate inflation across euro member states. |
| India ๐ฎ๐ณ | ~3.0–4.0% | National reports showed India’s retail CPI at ~3.16% (April) and generally low for 2025. |
| Brazil ๐ง๐ท | ~4.5–5.0% | IMF/OECD data indicated moderate inflation in Brazil among G20. |
| Canada ๐จ๐ฆ | ~2.1–2.4% | Statistics Canada reported average inflation around ~2.1–2.4% in 2025. |
๐ง Notes on Interpretation
-
OECD average inflation across advanced economies hovered around ~4.1–4.2% in mid-2025, though this includes smaller economies with higher CPI.
-
Global outliers — some emerging markets (e.g., Argentina, Turkey, Venezuela) experienced much higher inflation in 2025, but they are not typically classified among the “top 10 major economies” by GDP.
-
These figures are year-on-year CPI changes, not index levels. Official final annual averages may differ slightly when all statistical offices complete their 2025 reporting.
If you want a ranked list by GDP of major economies with their official 2025 CPI figures, I can compile the best available comparables too.
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