When will this Horrific Rain and Flooding End in Bali?

 Bali’s Rainy Blues? The Blue Skies Are Coming: Your Guide to the Sunshine Switch!

Feeling bogged down by persistent rains and a touch of cabin fever? We’ve all been there! But cheer up, because based on historical data from the last 25 years, the worst of Bali’s wet season is likely behind us, and those glorious dry days are just around the corner.

The drama of a standard Bali downpour.

Hi. This is Captain Lawrence. Many of you know me for my morning weather forecasts, especially during this horrific weather we've had the last couple of weeks. My clients and friends have been asking me: when do I think this will be over?

Well, I put my thoughts into artificial intelligence to confirm what I already know after living here 27 years—five of which were spent sailing across the channel almost every day on yacht charters as a captain.

When you're a captain, you really have to watch the weather. You don't want to get stuck out in the middle of that channel in 30-knot winds and a horrific downpour! I was happy to see that AI confirmed everything I was going to write.

Here is what AI and I believe is going to happen in the very near future regarding Bali's weather:

It Could Be Worse... (Much Worse!)

While a little leak or a flooded street is annoying, let’s gain some perspective. Right now, our friends in Southern Australia, particularly near Sydney, are facing massive flooding. 

Entire communities are underwater. We may get a temporary puddle, but we don't often face large-scale evacuation.

And look further afield. The East Coast of the United States and Canada is currently experiencing brutal winters.

We’re talking about many feet of snow, negative temperatures, and the absolute frustration of not being able to open your front door! A tropical shower is sounding pretty good right now, isn’t it?

When Does the Switch Actually Happen? (A Guesstimate based on 25 Years)

Here in Southern Bali (think Seminyak, Uluwatu, Nusa Dua), we are governed by the monsoon cycle. While nature doesn't adhere to a strict calendar, history gives us a very reliable roadmap.

The End of the Intense Storms: The massive "washout" days, where rain can persist heavily for six hours straight, are usually a feature of January and February. 

Looking back over the last 20 years, these severe events drop off sharply as we enter March. You might still get a strong thunderstorm this month, but the sustained monsoon intensity has broken.

   

The storm has broken; now it’s about gentle transition showers.

2. The Transition Month (April): April is historically the "shoulder" month. This is the period where the climate plays a tug-of-war. The heavy, predictable afternoon downpours begin to taper off significantly by late April. We see more blue sky and decreasing humidity.

3. The Dry Season Establishes (May): For the last two decades, May has been the reliable gatekeeper of the dry season. May is almost always characterized by low humidity, constant sunshine, and clear skies.

The Great Wind Flip (Java to Australia)

What actually drives this change? It’s the wind. The "Wet Season" isn't just about rain; it's the West Monsoon.

• From November to March, the trade winds blow off Java (from the West/Northwest). This wind crosses a lot of warm ocean, picking up intense moisture, which it drops on Bali.
  
  
  

 In late March and April, this system loses steam. The winds become light and variable, often leading to those "glassy," perfectly calm mornings that surfers and fishermen love.

By May, the winds have firmly shifted to the Southeast (the East Monsoon). These winds originate over the dry, cool Australian continent. They bring us our clearest, lowest-humidity, and most pleasant weather of the year.

The Investment Opportunity in the Wait

If you are a sophisticated investor or looking for real estate for semi-retirement, this shoulder season is actually a golden time. Why?

Prime Real Estate: Developing in Bali is all about timing.

Investing in the Wet Season (Wait, what?): Buying during or just after the wet season allows you to truly inspect a property. You can find any leaks, drainage issues, or potential moisture problems right away. It’s the ultimately realistic view. Plus, it is often quieter, meaning developers and agents may be more eager to negotiate.

Your Golden Timeline (Guesstimate)

• Now (Late Feb / Early March): Worst storms are likely over. Light leaks or puddles are the main threat. Expect variable weather.
• Late March: Westerly winds off Java drop off. Expect calm ("glassy") mornings and occasional showers.
• Mid-to-Late April: The big transition. The winds begin flipping to the Southeast (off Australia). Showers become brief. Blue skies increase. Humidity starts to drop.
• May 1st (Guesstimate): Dry season is officially here. Clear skies, Southeast breeze, delightful temperatures.

A Focus on Families and Retiring in Style

For families considering a move or a long-term holiday, the dry season (starting May) is when Bali truly comes alive for you. The water is calm, the humidity is gone, and everything is bright and clean.

A sunny paradise: The reward after the wet.

Semi-Retirement Dreams: Imagine a morning walk in the cool, dry air (22°C-24°C), then an afternoon on a glassy sea. This is the low-humidity life that Bali offers. We have world-class private healthcare, excellent infrastructure in the south, and a massive community of like-minded expats.

Keep the Faith!

The soggy cushions and slightly damp smell are just a memory in the making. According to 25 years of records, we’ve already endured the main event. It might be damp outside, but mentally, it’s already sunshine season. Keep that leak bucket ready for just a few more weeks—your blue-sky reward is almost here.